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2024 Presidential Election
The 2024 GOP field: How they win, how they lose
The race for the GOP presidential nomination has a set of historic firsts: a criminally indicted former president seeking an Oval Office comeback, a vice president who refused to go along with a plot to steal the last election, the most politically accomplished woman ever to run as a Republican — and an already-popular governor waiting in the wings.
Who ultimately wins out will take on President Joe Biden — and potentially secure the White House.
There are also other candidates and would-be candidates, too. We've put the entire field into three categories — based roughly on their chances to capture the nod — along with full scouting reports for everything that could go right or wrong along the road to the 2024 convention in Milwaukee.
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The Favorite
The most likely nominee(s). The Favorites have established major campaign infrastructure — plenty of money, staff in key states, outside groups ready to bombard the airwaves with advertising — built broad coalitions in polling and garnered endorsements from party leaders.
Donald Trump
The former president — who has refused to accept his 2020 defeat — is seeking to become only the second man in history to return to the Oval Office after his ouster.
🏆 Winning path
Trump remains popular among the Republican base despite numerous scandals and the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol that punctuated his turbulent presidency. His false claim that he was the rightful winner of the 2020 election has given his comeback bid a patina of grievance to add to his appeal to return to the policies of his administration. With only a few exceptions, Trump's likely rivals have refrained from criticizing his time in office or behavior outside of it, even after four separate criminal indictments.
❌ Losing path
Trump fatigue. Trump has dominated American politics — in both parties — since he first became a candidate in 2015. Unlike his first campaign, when the field against him was split, Trump could face a single competitor who serves as a counterweight in DeSantis. And legal jeopardy on multiple fronts could convince enough GOP primary voters to turn the page and look to the future, even if they like Trump and his record as president.
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The Contenders
In the ballgame, but not top-tier candidates. The Contenders are running credible campaigns, with enough money and staff to be competitive, but haven’t gained as much traction. Still, a Contender has enough support in a key early state or among a segment of the GOP electorate to build upon as the primaries approach — or potentially play king- (or queen-) maker down the road.
Chris Christie
The former New Jersey governor ended his campaign less than two weeks before the primary in New Hampshire, where he'd been banking on a strong finish.
Ron DeSantis
DeSantis finished second in Iowa but ended his campaign before New Hampshire.
Nikki Haley
Haley was the final non-Trump candidate standing, but she won only Vermont and the District of Columbia before dropping out after Super Tuesday.
Mike Pence
The former vice president ended his campaign more than two months before the Iowa caucuses.
Vivek Ramaswamy
The investor and former pharmaceutical company CEO ran an outsider campaign based largely on a critique of “wokeness” among corporations and other institutions. He dropped out after finishing fourth in Iowa.
Tim Scott
The early-state senator was a favorite of the party’s donor class but fell behind his fellow South Carolinian, Nikki Haley.
Ted Cruz
The 2016 runner-up is foregoing another campaign, instead choosing to seek a third term in the Senate.
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The Long shots
Not a factor — at least not yet. The Long Shots barely register in polling, nationally and in the early states. There’s always the possibility of catching fire, especially in one of the early states, to propel you into the next tier. But there’s an even greater likelihood of an ignominious, early dropout.
Ryan Binkley
A Dallas-area businessman and non-denominational pastor, Binkley ran unsuccessfully through the first four states and dropped out before Super Tuesday.
Doug Burgum
Burgum made the first two debates through a mostly self-funded effort, along with a well-heeled super PAC. But his technocratic campaign never gained traction.
Larry Elder
The former conservative media personality, who first took the plunge when he campaigned to replace California Gov. Gavin Newsom in a failed 2021 recall effort, never caught on as a presidential hopeful.
Will Hurd
The former Texas congressman failed to gain traction. He endorsed Nikki Haley after dropping out in early October.
Asa Hutchinson
After a lengthy career in public office — as a U.S. attorney, congressman (and Bill Clinton impeachment manager), DEA administrator and two-term Arkansas governor — Hutchinson dropped out after Iowa.
Perry Johnson
The self-funding “quality guru” suspended his campaign after failing to gain traction or qualify for the RNC debates.
Francis Suarez
The Miami mayor ended his campaign after failing to qualify for the first debate.
Greg Abbott
Abbott was just elected to a third term as Texas governor and has been one of Republicans’ top fundraisers anywhere in the country.
Larry Hogan
The former Maryland governor — one of Trump’s top GOP critics — chose not to enter the race.
Mike Pompeo
After a monthslong flirtation, Trump’s former CIA director and secretary of state announced in April that "the time is not right" for him to launch a presidential campaign in 2024.
Marco Rubio
Since being hailed as the potential future of the GOP eight years ago, Rubio has been eclipsed by a fellow Floridian in DeSantis.
Rick Scott
After an eventful four years in the Senate — including a fruitless cycle as NRSC chairman and an unsuccessful effort to topple Minority Leader Mitch McConnell — Scott chose a bid for a second term over a presidential campaign.
Chris Sununu
The popular governor of the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire made the rounds in the national media, dismissing Trump as the GOP’s leader, before announcing he wouldn't run.
Glenn Youngkin
The term-limited Virginia governor is sometimes floated as an electable conservative candidate.
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